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Is the Humboldt County coast ready for king tides, storm surge, and super El Niño this winter?

With water already running about a foot higher than usual in Humboldt Bay and a powerful El Niño strengthening offshore, North Coast residents could see a winter where several coastal threats may arrive at once. Forecasters say king tides, Kelvin waves, unusually warm ocean waters, and stronger storm systems could combine, leading to flooding and erosion in low‑lying neighborhoods such as King Salmon and Fields Landing.

In two months, the California coastline will be impacted by king tides, higher waves that usually arrive around the end of the year. The Times-Standard reached out to several government agencies to see how they are preparing for the next potentially catastrophic event.

Gov. Gavin Newsom last week declared a statewide emergency ahead of what forecasters say could become a “super” El Niño, a pattern known for driving stronger storms, heavier rainfall and elevated coastal water levels. The declaration comes as king tides, Kelvin waves and chronic flooding in King Salmon are expected to overlap through early 2027, raising concerns about erosion, inundation and storm‑surge impacts along the North Coast.

National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Aylward said El Niño is already underway and strengthening. He said the atmospheric impacts typically arrive in late fall and continue through winter, bringing heavier storms and higher water levels along the North Coast.

“El Niño is ongoing right now,” said Aylward. “The impacts really happen as we go into the fall and winter, and that’s what we’re preparing for. We’re starting at a higher level this year, and the tide chart is off by a foot in Humboldt Bay. If a storm hits at the same time as a king tide, you can suddenly have big impacts.”

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Planning for Sea Level Rise Splits County Planning Commission

While workshopping policies that will shape the future of Humboldt Bay, the county’s Planning Commission couldn’t reach consensus on how to address sea level rise.

At its Sept. 3 meeting, the commission held its third workshop on the draft Humboldt Bay Area Plan, reviewing five sea level rise scenarios.

There’s uncertainty on how to plan for it as it hinges on a variety of factors, including future degree of emissions reduction.

A “high” risk scenario was in a previous draft of the plan but the categorization is brought down a notch in the current draft, to “intermediate high.”

“The reason we went away from high is because there’s a 0.1 percent chance that it would ever be exceeded and so that is maybe an unrealistic chance that it would happen,” said Planning Director John Ford when asked about it. “Intermediate high itself has a fairly low chance of ever being exceeded, as I recall that’s at 20 percent.”

He described intermediate high as “still a very conservative projection.”

But some commissioners are concerned about planning for uncertain outcomes.

“The higher the scenario, the more cost associated with building that adaptation,” said Commissioner Lorna McFarlane, adding, “You’re potentially adding, in some cases, millions of dollars to a project for some threat that may or may not be realized.”

While some commissioners supported going with the higher scenario, they acknowledged the challenges of forecasting.

“That may be part of the problem,” said Commissioner Todd Fulton. “I personally don’t think that the science is there for the intermediate high. I’m more comfortable around the medium area not only for the cost basis but I personally don’t see the science that justifies the intermediate high.”

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Prop. 45 puts clean water and more at risk: Vote no.

Ballots will be landing in Humboldt County mailboxes soon, ahead of the November election. This fall’s ballot is particularly long and involved, with fourteen statewide measures up for consideration. Prop. 45 will be buried at the end of that list, but voters shouldn’t ignore it. This measure could do tremendous damage to our region and our state if it passes.

The California Environmental Quality Act is fundamental to protecting California’s environment by providing opportunities for citizens to engage with projects impacting their communities. Prop. 45 would fast-track the approval of a long list of polluting projects, putting our local air, water quality, and even our electricity rates at risk. Just as we are seeing the rapid and aggressive rollback of federal protections for clean air, clean water, and public health under the Trump administration, Prop. 45 invites Californians to hand even more power to corporate polluters.

This 41-page ballot measure would reduce public oversight over everything from forest clearcutting and dam building to the development of warehouses, CO2 and methane gas pipelines, landfill gas facilities, data centers, and more. If Prop. 45 passes, it will be harder to secure critical protections for communities and natural resources through the environmental review process.

Data centers are front of mind for many voters. Efforts in recent years to expand broadband throughout this region have been essential to supporting local economic prosperity. But the success of these efforts also means Humboldt County is increasingly likely to see data center developers knocking on our door. The recent move by the Eureka and Arcata City Councils to enact a temporary moratorium on data center development makes it clear our local leaders understand this area is fair game for deep-pocketed developers looking to expand their reach. Legal experts agree that fast-tracked approval of data centers is more likely if Prop. 45 passes.

Prop. 45 would place a new strain on local governments to approve projects according to artificial tight timelines, or else they would risk new litigation from developers. Unlike large urban jurisdictions, rural counties like ours rely on the California Environmental Quality Act to ensure that projects are well designed to minimize and mitigate effects to the environment. New, tight deadlines come at the expense of meaningful public engagement and risks rushed judgments and sloppy work. And the cost: Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates that just implementing Prop. 45 would likely cost state and local public agencies $100 million or more annually.

Who stands to benefit? Let’s look at the money. The campaign to pass Prop. 45 is being funded by the likes of PG&E and other for-profit utilities, data center and warehouse developers, and the oil and gas industry. Big corporations are investing tens of millions of dollars to pass this measure because they know Prop. 45 will make it easier for them to build polluting projects. Voters should understand that nothing in this ballot measure requires developers to lower housing prices, lower utility bills, or bring down costs for consumers.

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Humboldt Bay oyster seeds support 1,500 West Coast jobs, report finds

More than 450 million shellfish seed produced annually generate $31 million economic output

Humboldt Bay’s mariculture sector supported 57 local jobs while generating $31.1 million in total economic output in 2024, according to a new economic analysis prepared by the Schatz Energy Research Center at Cal Poly Humboldt, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s California Sea Grant College Program, which funds marine research, education, and outreach throughout California.

“Shellfish are an important piece of Humboldt County’s social, cultural, and economic fabric. Clams, cockles, and other shellfish have been harvested by the Wiyot people of Humboldt Bay (Wigi) since time immemorial,” the report states. “The Wiyot people continue these practices today, and with the return of ancestral lands such as Digawututklh (on the Samoa Peninsula), traditional harvesting of clams and other shellfish can resume. Commercial shellfish farming has been substantially present in Humboldt Bay since 1955, though attempts to build an industry in the Bay date back as early as 1896.”

The Humboldt Bay Shellfish Mariculture Business Survey: Assessing Economic Conditions and Contributions report authored by Tanner Etherton, Kevin Johnson, and Arne Jacobson surveyed responses from seven of the eight local shellfish businesses and found Humboldt Bay produced 459 million individual shellfish seed, a 152% increase since 2016.

“Humboldt Bay occupies a key position in the California and West Coast shellfish mariculture industry because of its longstanding high-health status, uniquely strong tidal exchange, and stable, healthy ecosystems. Its shellfish industry has produced more than half of California’s market-sized oysters annually since 2015 and more than half of all farmed shellfish in 2024,” the report states. “That same year, it supplied at least 177 businesses with market-sized shellfish, and 136 farms with shellfish seed. Because no other California bay currently possesses the same high-health status allowing it to export seed to other states, Humboldt Bay serves a unique role in the U.S. West Coast shellfish industry.”

Tanner Etherton, a co-author of the report, said an aquaculture advisory committee was formed in response to the Heavy Lift Marine Terminal proposal for offshore wind, giving growers and Harbor District staff a venue to work through potential impacts and possible mitigation measures.

“The Harbor District set up an aquaculture advisory committee to work with the Harbor District and the industry to discuss some of the implications of the project proposal. The objectives were to understand the project better, what the impacts might be to the industry, and to propose and evaluate mitigation measures. And so, through that advisory committee, they requested that an economic analysis be conducted to understand the economic conditions of the industry today prior to this proposed development.”

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Download the report: Humboldt Bay Shellfish Mariculture Business Survey: Assessing Economic Conditions and Contributions

US datacenters face further backlash over wastewater pollution

From rare bacteria to ‘forever chemicals’, a series of cases of violations or alleged pollution has prompted alarm

When officials in Wyoming conducted a routine test on the water that was being discharged from a massive under-construction Meta datacenter, it was a shock to find it contained a rare and potentially hazardous bacterium.

While the wastewater flushed into sewers in Cheyenne, Wyoming, was never destined for the public drinking supply, the presence of Cupriavidus gilardii bacterium in 801,000 gallons of water ejected by a contractor for the datacenter earlier this year was still unnerving.

Concerned that residents could be exposed to the bacteria if they inhaled evaporating droplets of the water used for irrigation, Cheyenne officials took until July before deciding to stop taking wastewater from Meta’s contractor, Goat Systems – a decision that is now being appealed.

“It was a big surprise,” said Frank Strong, water resources manager at the city’s board of public utilities, about the discovery. “Out of a sense of caution we’ve shut it down until we can find out more information.”

Meta, which is behind the $800m, 960-acre artificial intelligence (AI) datacenter campus, said independent testing by its contractor found no evidence of the bacterium and questioned the validity of the city’s own tests.

“Meta is committed to being a good neighbor in Cheyenne, which includes helping protect local water resources,” said a company spokesman. “We appreciate the board of public utilities’ detailed release of information, which confirms the board found no impact to the public or environment.”

However, the bacteria-laden water in Wyoming is just the latest in a series of alarms raised across the US about datacenters and water – not just how much of it they are sucking up, but also what’s in the water when it is funneled back into rivers, streams and public water systems.
In Virginia, authorities have brought enforcement actions against several datacenters for wastewater and wetland permit violations, in West Virginia stormwater runoff from an incomplete datacenter has twice flooded surrounding houses, all while locals and activists have campaigned against the discharge of heated water from an upcoming datacenter into Lake Seneca, in New York.

The Waterkeeper Alliance, a network of environmental organizations, said 55 of its affiliated groups across the US were working on datacenter-related issues, with 80% of these campaigns centered on concerns that pollutants may be leaching into the environment via discharged water.

Some of this backlash is now set to play out in the courts. In Georgia, Flint Riverkeeper has said it will sue the QTS datacenter in Fayetteville for allegedly ejecting “massive amounts of dirt [and] massive concentrations of metals” into the Flint River over the past two years.

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